What way does probability relate to your own career or industry, or an industry that you are familiar with?
Probability1
What way does probability relate to your own career or industry, or an industry that you are familiar with?
Probability is used in real estate all of the time. One common example is determining the probability (the chance) that a property will sell; which is correlated to days on the market and price. Most often if a seller increases their price, then the amount of time the house will remain on the market is projected to increase and the probability that the home will sell most certainly can decline. Therefore, understanding how to price a house is critical. Also, the housing market is constantly changed due to other factors such as demand, inventory, interest rates, stock market, economic conditions, and even weather. Projections can be made based on Events that occur, interest rate increases for example, which change the probabilities for the housing market. It is a very obvious trend that with the increase of interest rate, along with inflation as we see today, that the probability of the housing market remaining at high demand will taper off.
How does thinking about probability impact personal decision-making in your own life or household or lives of your family, friends, etc.?
In my personal life I use probability every day. I begin each day with a high probability that I will go to the gym first thing in the morning because on average I go five to six days per week; while checking the weather forecast will determine the probability of wearing a jacket. Every important decision that I make needs to be weighed, analyzed and possible outcomes projected. Usually, I fall back on previous experiences to help calculate the probability of a desired outcome (or undesired) based on the decision that I want to make. If for example there is late night event that I am invited to, but I am married with children and have responsibilities the next day, I can refer to similar events from the past to infer and project what would happen. Based on that information, I would know the probability that I will not be able to uphold my responsibilities the next day is very likely.
